ALBUQUERQUE — A new statewide poll conducted by the Tarrance Group of 608 registered likely voters shows the race for the next governor of New Mexico to be tied.
In a potential November match up between Steve Pearce and Michelle Lujan Grisham it is now a dead heat within the margin of error on the ballot test in a recent survey conducted April 9 – 12th, 2018. The findings represent a further tightening in the race from a similar poll conducted by the Tarrance Group in 2017.
Currently, 45% of voters say they would prefer Steve Pearce the Republican, and 47% of voters Michelle Lujan Grisham the Democrat, despite a double-digit party registration advantage for the Democrat.
"Michelle Lujan Grisham starts this race with significant structural advantages, including national headwinds, yet her inherent weakness with voters and Steve Pearce's underlying strengths continue to show up in the numbers. At this time, the race for the next governor of New Mexico is a dead heat," said Tarrance Group pollster BJ Martino.
Pearce Undecided Lujan Grisham
45% 8% 47%
"As our opponent has repeatedly said herself, this race is 'razor close,'" said Pearce campaign manager Paul Smith. "These numbers show Steve Pearce has built a positive image with voters based on his own unique life story and a plan for economic opportunity for all New Mexicans. Michelle Lujan Grisham is meanwhile stuck in the mud with few ideas and a hyper-partisan message designed only for her base."
The poll sampled voters who 33 percent of voters who identified as Republican, 47 who identified as Democratic, and 20 percent who identify as Independent.
The Tarrance Group is one of the most widely respected and successful strategic research and polling firms in the nation.
Download the executive summary here.