Beyond the poll numbers
I believe polling should be used to confirm what is observed instead of as an alternative to observing what is occurring. In 2018, a Heinrich staffer was overheard talking with a prospective recruit about what they were polling to know what the people of New Mexico care about. We should know what they care about from discussions with the people of New Mexico; polling should only confirm what is observed to ensure an important issue is not missed and to understand the priorities.
My Thoughts on the Poll Numbers
RealClear Politics Averages provides good information and trends on voters' thinking. However, this election has a new wrinkle with the RCP Betting Average. Until this past week, the betting average was a good indicator of long-term trends. However, an individual bet $30 million on Trump winning. I heard two explanations: one was that the individual believed Trump would win, and the other was to create momentum for Trump to win. Either way, we can no longer use this indicator.
RealClearPolitics Average for Battleground States: The RCP Battleground factor is a great indicator of winning the Electoral College. Since entering the race, Harris has led this factor for most of the time. However, Trump has gained on Harris, and in the last few weeks, Trump has slowly pulled ahead, so today, he is a solid point ahead. What I like about the RCP Battleground trend is Trump’s slow and steady improvement, and that type of gain is difficult to reverse.
RealClearPolitics Overall Average: The RCP Overall Average is an excellent indicator of winning the popular vote. Harris led the RCP Overall Average by two percent shortly after entering the race. However, in the last month, Trump has steadily been gaining on Harris, and today, Trump is less than one percent behind. I noticed when looking at the individual poll numbers that Harris’s high percentages have been dropping, Trump's percentages are climbing, and the undecided has stayed the same. I believe we are witnessing a small percentage of Harris voters moving to undecided, and we are seeing undecided voters moving to Trump. Those disenchanted Harris voters will not move back to Harris.
The RealClearPolitics Poll comparison between 2024, 2020, and 2016 is interesting and immaterial. It shows that Trump's support was underreported in 2020 and 2016 in the RCP Battleground, and the RCP average was low between four and eight percent. I expect the pollsters to work very hard to improve the quality of the research, but who knows if the elusive Trump supporter can stay hidden for another election cycle?
My Thoughts on the “Tells” of the Campaign
Harris has lost Saturday Night Live. Until this month, SNL had only made fun of Republicans; now, SNL’s skits make fun of Harris and Walz. This is as big a deal as Walter Cronkite (the name in the trusted national news for two decades) and SNL first wielding laughter to undermine a Republican presidential candidate (skits of President Gerald Ford's defeat tripping).
Barack Obama inadvertently undermined Harris when he chastised young black men for not supporting Harris because she is a black woman. I believe black men are not supporting her because they don’t trust her. A friend shared with me, “Harris scares black men like me; she puts us in prison.” Just eleven years ago, Obama connected with these young black men.
Where are the black hip-hop and rap artists? Where are JZ, Beyonce, and the Kardashians, who have supported Democratic presidential candidates in the past? If they endorsed Harris, they would still support her despite the P. Diddy indictment. They are silent, which speaks volumes.
Harris's campaign has gone from joy to fear (ABC News article, Harris paints Trump as a threat ). At the same time, Trump has started letting the people and the media see his lighter side (the WSJ editorial by James Taranto). It is hard to talk joy when you are spending a billion in campaign contributions and still losing, and it is easy to be light-hearted when they finally stop trying to throw you in prison, the bullets stop coming, and you are ahead.
Donald Trump Needs You to Vote.
Donald Trump has momentum behind him; he is on his way to winning the Electoral College and the Presidency. But he needs more than 270 votes. He needs “Street Cred” (the halls of the Capital Building are as tough as any urban setting), and winning the popular vote gives him the “Street Cred” he needs. So, Vote
Republicans need a majority in the House to stop another round of Lawfare against Donald Trump. If you are in Southeast New Mexico, vote. CD-2 is winnable if Republicans vote in high numbers, and CD-3 is a bit tougher but also winnable.
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