Southwest Climate Outlook - October 2026
Welcome to this month's edition of the Southwest Climate Outlook!
El Niño Highlight
In September, El Niño's sea surface temperatures crossed the threshold that qualifies El Niño events for Very Strong El Niño status, which is the highest of four categories of El Niño strength. It won't officially count as a Very Strong event until about another month of sufficiently elevated sea surface temperatures has passed, but based on forecasts, that is virtually certain to happen, and moreover, it's very likely to be the strongest El Niño event in observed history.
For the climate of the Southwest, El Niño conditions mean increased chances of above normal precipitation, fall–spring.
A stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate to greater impacts on seasonal climate in the Southwest, but it does lend increased confidence to the forecast of a general tendency toward wetter-than-normal conditions.
Significant precipitation events in September and October were fueled by elevated atmospheric moisture that resulted from tropical storms in the East Pacific, which in turn were favored by El Niño conditions. Tropical storm activity will taper off as the hurricane season ends, but waters in the East Pacific will remain unusually warm, which means they will supply more atmospheric moisture than usual, to any storm systems heading into the Southwest.
See more in ENSO Tracker
In this Issue:
- Precipitation & Temperature
- Drought
- Water Supply
- ENSO Tracker
- Seasonal Forecasts
- Environment & Society Fellow Blogs
- Southwest Climate Podcast
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