New Mexico's 2026 Election: Republicans Failed, Democrats Prevailed, and Voters Will Pay the Price

Many factors favored Democrats in the 2026 election. Nationally, Donald Trump. Statewide, a fractured Republican Party of New Mexico (RPNM) and an oil-and-gas industry unwilling to fully support Republican candidates. Meanwhile, Democrats benefited from ActBlue's fundraising machine, even as questions about the legitimacy of some contributions remained unresolved. Allegations of illegal voting also deserve investigation, but allegations are not proof.

Something Is Brewing, and It's About to Begin

The morning after Donald Trump won in 2016, I was on the phone with our pollster and trusted advisor. Our number one question: What would Trump's victory mean for our 2018 campaign? The answer was simple: The midterm election would favor the party out of power—the Democrats.

Donald Trump just can't help himself.

As Melania reportedly observed, Donald always hits back ten times harder. When Trump attacked Democrats, rank-and-file Republicans shouted, "Right on!" But when he turned on fellow Republicans, the damage was devastating. Republicans in Congress retired or lost elections. His confrontational style cost him political support and contributed to Republican electoral defeats.

Trump also selected people for positions that inflamed his opponents and energized their base. Consider Steve Pearce's selection to lead the Bureau of Land Management. Environmentalists portrayed Pearce as a modern-day Attila the Hun, ready to sack America's public lands. Pearce appointment motivated the environmentally concerned to vote democrat.

Then came the distractions.

The White House may have needed a banquet hall, but not one that upstaged the White House. Washington doesn't need an Arc de Triomphe; we have already defended the capital. The Kennedy Center needed renovation, not rebranding. Washington might benefit from a world-class golf course but save the damn trees!

John Wayne, Charles Bronson, Harrison Ford, and Keanu Reeves understood something Trump apparently doesn't: Keep the same villain throughout the movie. Trump treated enemies and allies as interchangeable, depending on the circumstances. Voters can accept exceptions, but not when exceptions become the rule.

New Mexico Conservatives Weren't Much Help

Outgoing RPNM Chairman Steve Pearce stacked the deck in favor of his preferred successor, Amy Barela. It worked, but Barela's leadership faced immediate challenges to its legitimacy. Barela attempted to consolidate control by changing party voting requirements from a two-thirds majority to a simple majority. Instead, she lost control, leaving the RPNM rudderless when Republicans needed leadership most.

Meanwhile, Republican minority leaders in the New Mexico House and Senate developed an ambitious strategy: register enough new Republicans to challenge Democratic dominance, potentially even reclaiming legislative majorities. They had the money and organization; they didn't need dissenters like me.

New Mexico's oil-and-gas industry could have helped. Yet even a Republican state senator with ties to the Oil Patch, senior leadership in the RPNM, and a voice in Washington couldn't persuade the industry to fully support the legislative strategy or the Republican gubernatorial nominee. Perhaps the problem was simple: Their preferred candidate hadn't won the primary, so they took their money and went home.

Then There Are Those Crazy Democrats

ActBlue. What a fundraising machine!

Millions flow through the platform from thousands of contributors. Congressional investigations have raised questions about donor verification, potentially unauthorized contributions, and the safeguards intended to prevent illegal donations. But here's the troubling question: How can anyone be confident about the legitimacy of every contribution when the volume is enormous and individual donations are small? Democrats can point to contributions falling below legal limits, but that is why so many small contributors had combined totals in the millions.

Then there's New Mexico's election system.

New Mexico began issuing driver's licenses to residents regardless of immigration status.  Remember when a real driver's license came from the state, and a fake one came from the guy down the street? Today, New Mexico issues REAL ID driver's licenses, standard driver's licenses, and voter registration cards to both groups. BOTH. Is the state complicit in issuing fraudulent voter cards? And Then There Are New Mexico Voters

Why did New Mexico voters elect Democrats to State and Local Offices?

For decades, Democrats have dominated New Mexico government. Yet our state continues to struggle with healthcare access, educational achievement, child welfare, substance abuse, pedestrian fatalities, and violent crime. These problems have persisted through Democratic administrations and Democratic legislative majorities. At what point do voters hold the party in power accountable?

Hope and Prayer

I hope New Mexicans eventually recognize that the politically connected are prospering while working families are falling behind. The politically connected get free and accessible healthcare; everyone just gets free healthcare. And families are attending more funerals than high school graduations.

And I pray that when New Mexico voters finally demand change, a new generation of Republican leaders will be ready. Not interested in consolidating power in a small and seemingly getting smaller group of people.