The New Mexico Republican Party was dealt a surprise blow in their lawsuit over the state Legislature’s redrawing of the 2nd Congressional District. Republican Judge Fred Van Soelen, presiding in a courtroom in Lovington, ruled on Oct. 6 that while it was clear that Democratic lawmakers intended to dilute Republican votes in the redrawn district, the new map did not violate the state Constitution.

In other words, the new district is totally gerrymandered. It just doesn’t “rise to the level of an egregious gerrymander,” as Van Soelen ruled, citing the specific criteria set in a previous ruling by the state Supreme Court. 

Democratic leadership had been open about their intent to target Congresswoman Yvette Herrell in the 2021 redistricting process. Then-Speaker Brian Egolf (D-Santa Fe) made no bones about his intent to distort CD2 to make it unwinnable for any Republican after Herrell beat incumbent Xochitl Torres-Small for the seat in November 2020.

At the same time the Redistricting Task Force, a cross-partisan group of citizens from around that state led by two retired judges (on which I served) was finalizing its recommendations to the Legislature. First and foremost, the Task Force recommended a truly independent redistricting commission to draw the state’s political maps based on population, compactness of geography, communities of interest, and not on voting history or protecting incumbents.

While the concept of independent redistricting received a lot of support from the media, Democratic leadership was resistant, and many Republican lawmakers were oddly passive. In the end, a watered-down measure did pass, establishing a Citizens Redistricting Committee, but giving the Legislature the option to disregard the Committee’s recommendations and do whatever it wanted.

Which mostly, it did. What the CRC did accomplish was expose the people of New Mexico to the principles of independent redistricting. Later polling showed that the majority of New Mexicans want fully independent redistricting.

But in 2021, that was not to be. The intent of the leaders of the Democratic caucus was clear: flip CD2. According to The Cook Political Report, the reconfigured CD2 went from Trump +12 in 2020 to Biden +6 in 2022. That’s a big swing. And during the special redistricting legislative session, leadership was sweating out the numbers ward by ward. Text messages from Senate President Pro Tem Mimi Stewart (D-Albuquerque) provided as evidence in the lawsuit show the effort to increase the DPI (Democratic Performance Index).

“That’s not enough for a mid term election so we adjusted some edges, scooped up more of abq and are now at 53%,” reads one of her texts (sent to one of the advocates behind the “People’s Map,” one of the “public” maps submitted to the CRC. The text exchanges show clear collusion between the so-called advocates and the Democratic leadership to manipulate the CRC process). Because the voters of Albuquerque can just be “scooped up” and dumped into a voting bloc with Roswell and Hobbs.

But the primary reason this chicanery is not considered “egregious” gerrymandering rests squarely on the shoulders of Herrell herself: she did too well in the 2022 election, beating the odds and outperforming the top of the ticket by five percentage points. She lost the election by 0.7%, which Van Soelen ruled showed the district is indeed competitive.

If you know Yvette Herrell, this would not surprise you. This woman works. She is one of the toughest campaigners and hardest working elected officials I’ve ever seen. The specter of running against her in 2024 has forced the winner of that election, Congressman Gabe Vasquez, to the center. He even joined his GOP House colleagues in condemning Governor Lujan Grisham’s unenforceable public health order/gun ban, breaking with the New Mexico delegation.

If only Herrell hadn’t started pounding the pavement in the South Valley of Albuquerque in early 2022, and allowed Vasquez four or five percentage points, she might have gotten herself a more conservative district in 2024. 

The Cook Report lists CD2 as a toss-up for 2024. If Grisham keeps extending her public health order ad infinitum, CD2 could sour on the Democratic Party, giving Herrell just enough room to take back the seat. It’s also possible that Trump on the ballot in 2024 will hurt her more than it did in 2020 given the pileup of charges he faces and Herrell’s own vote to not certify the 2020 election results her first week in office. A lot can happen in 13 months.

NMGOP has filed an appeal of Van Soelen’s ruling and it is expected to be promptly referred to the state Supreme Court. I don’t see much hope for the appeal.

In the meantime, good government advocates are again pushing for independent redistricting, now for legislation that would put a question on the ballot for a constitutional amendment establishing an independent redistricting commission. If we voters don’t want to be manipulated by the legislature into districts that merely serve partisan interests, we must convince our legislators to accept independent, equitable redistricting.

Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican, she lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at news.ind.merritt@gmail.com.