The second half of July has had no shortage of blockbuster political news stories. In less than 48 hours: Federal judge (and Trump appointee) Aileen Cannon dismissed all charges in the classified documents case against President Trump; Trump announced his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, a former critic reborn as a MAGA zealot exactly half his age; and of course, the failed assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania Trump rally over the weekend that killed one attendee and critically wounded two others.
Donald J. Trump is riding high going into the Republican national convention in Milwaukee. But will this Big News Week translate into votes? Only if it convinces erstwhile Biden voters to stay home. None of these events is likely to crystallize the opinion of undecided voters.
The documents case was not going to impact the election with Cannon on the bench; she had already delayed proceedings until after the election. Unlike the nothingburger that was the Stormy Daniels trial, the classified documents case showed the blatant disregard Trump held for national security and the lengths he and his team went to to keep these documents from proper handling.
Have other Presidents and Vice Presidents been found to have classified material in their possession after leaving the White House? Yes. The difference is that, unlike Trump, they all immediately returned the documents to the appropriate agency for storage or disposition, the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA). Trump and his team denied having them and even changed their location, forcing a search and seizure of the documents at his private residence.
J.D. Vance is the least strategic choice Trump could make for Vice President from an election perspective. What Vance's selection does signal is Trump's consideration of his legacy. In announcing Vance as Trump's running mate, The New York Times referred to him as an "ideologue." This is incorrect. An ideologue is one who is steadfast in one's beliefs and advocates relentlessly for them. In 2016, Vance was one of the original Never Trumpers. By 2022, when running for an open Senate seat in Ohio, Vance conveniently found MAGA was in his heart after all and embraced the movement full bore to gain Trump's endorsement and win a seven-way primary and the general election.
Trump, a registered Democrat until 2009, no doubt appreciates Vance's ideological malleability. While Vance can certainly be trusted as a Trump surrogate on the campaign trail, he is unlikely to pull moderates or independent voters to the ticket, which is needed in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
What Vance does is put a definitive end to the Reagan era of Republicanism. Vance is all in on inflationary tariffs, authoritarian big government, and isolationist foreign policy. As the likely GOP Presidential nominee in 2028, and possible President even sooner (should the Trump-Vance ticket win and something happen to the elderly Trump), Vance ensures populist Trumpism, not conservatism, will be the prevailing policy of the RNC going forward.
Like the rest of the country, the news of the shooting at the Pennsylvania rally horrified and shocked me. As I reflect on the information available currently, it certainly looks like so many recent tragic mass shootings but for the fact that it happened to be at a presidential campaign event so had the benefit of Secret Service protection and significant local law enforcement presence. It could have been much, much worse. But the pattern of a young man, a loner, obtaining a high-powered rifle and crude explosives is not necessarily new or unique in 21st Century America.
At the same time, Presidential assassination attempts are not necessarily political; the attempt on President Reagan's life and that on President Ford's were not. But with a hyper-polarized political climate, rhetoric on both sides after the Trump rally shooting runs the gamut from histrionic to accusatory to completely inappropriate. I felt President Biden's brief address to the nation 24 hours after the attack, calling for unity and stressing the importance of the freedom to support the candidate of one's choice, entirely appropriate, necessary, and Presidential (kudos to his speechwriter).
The Democrats still need to tread very carefully. Concerns about their candidate's fitness for office are not going to go away after one well-delivered ten-minute speech read from a teleprompter.
How we got here in the first place is a series of very cynical decisions from both major parties. Poll after poll have shown most Americans didn't want either Trump or Biden to run in 2024. Neither party cared. This election is not about pleasing the majority of Americans. It is about getting enough of each party's strongest supporters out to vote while encouraging the opposition and those in the middle to stay home.
And you do that by putting out the worst possible scenario of what will happen if your opponent wins. Republicans emphasize a failing old man who was at the helm of the border crisis and the worst inflation since the 1970s. Democrats paint a picture of dictatorship, criminality, cronyism and an existential threat to democracy.
The worst part is that there is an element of truth to each side's hyperbole.
This election should be about getting all voters to get out and vote, not just reliable partisans. Many of the ignored voters are under 35. They are not going to care about the documents case being dismissed, or a Trump mini-me as Vice President, or even Trump surviving an assassin's bullet. They care about jobs and the economy, a better future for their families, and to a certain degree, ethics and democracy. They want to see themselves and their values reflected somewhere in their Presidential candidates. It's hard to see yourself and your country's future in a man who puts himself first, foremost, and always, or one who appears to be declining by the week.
There's a whole lot of political news this week. It's just that none of it really matters to the voters who matter the most.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican, she lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at news.ind.merritt@gmail.com.