Sunday morning dawned with surprising news for many: Bashar al-Assad, dictator of Syria, had fled the country, ending a brutal regime begun by his father. Much of the initial information as to Assad's status was provided by Russia. The world would later learn that Assad had quietly shipped his family to Russia weeks earlier before joining them there himself.
It's easy to assume the downfall of Assad, perhaps best remembered for jailing and torturing tens of thousands of dissidents, and using chemical weapons on his own citizens, is the end to the conflict in Syria. President-elect Trump immediately posted on Truth Social, that the United States should "do nothing." Trump surrogate, former Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, took to the airwaves later Sunday morning repeating just that, also asserting that it was the Obama administration that failed to address this more than a decade ago.
The civil war in Syria began in 2011 as an offshoot of the Arab Spring with pro-democracy protests and rallies. It expanded into a full-scale insurgency with different factions receiving support from various nations and groups. Russia and Iran (acting as Hezbollah) backed the Assad regime.
Turkey supported and continues to support the Syrian National Army (SNA). The U.S. and other Western nations support the Kurdish-controlled Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). SNA and SDF control large portions of northern and northeastern Syria and have disputed territory between them.
From there, things get murkier. Hayyat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), who is currently forming the transitional government, was formed out of Al Qaeda. HTS should not be confused with the Islamic State (ISIS) whose presence in Syria attracted U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. remains "vigilant" to counter ISIS activity, but ISIS is not HTS. HTS is currently categorized as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other major Western nations.
According to several news reports, HTS states it will ensure human rights are upheld and it will create a pluralistic state where multiple interests are represented. One might recall the Taliban made similar promises before taking power in Afghanistan. The Wall Street Journal reports that HTS has declared that women will not be subject to clothing restrictions.
About 900 U.S. troops are on the ground in Syria, and the U.S. has launched preemptive airstrikes to keep ISIS suppressed. According to a Dec. 10 press briefing held at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., this is possible because the Russians and Iranians in the central part of Syria have now withdrawn. There are thousands of ISIS prisoners held in the northeast, guarded by the SDF for the U.S.
Al-Jazeera reported that HTS appointed Mohammed al-Bashir, who was the leader of the HTS-controlled Syrian province of Idlib, as transitional prime minister on Dec. 10. He will serve through March 1, 2025.
Al-Bashir told Al-Jazeera, "Today we had a meeting for the cabinet and we invited members from the old government and some directors from the administration in Idlib and its surrounding areas, in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people."
The peaceful transition of power, eventual elections and resolution of conflicts among the remaining militias are of course the wishes for global community in post-Assad Syria. Relying on HTS to accomplish that alone is likely a pipe dream.
We have seen what the poor execution of a bad Trump plan accomplished in Afghanistan. There is much to go wrong in Syria, not the least of which is the turning loose of some 10,000 (according to PBS NewsHour) ISIS prisoners, which could not just destabilize Syria but the entire region. An HTS-ISIS alliance would signal a transition for Syria from dictatorship to theocracy.
Doing "nothing" in Syria may actually be doing a quite a bit – of irreparable damage.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican for 36 years, she became an independent upon reading the 2024 Republican platform. She lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and one of cat. She can be reached at
