A natural outcome of certain states moving their presidential primaries earlier in the year is that for those states with later primaries, primary election turnout is often dismal. That will likely be the case in New Mexico in 2024 where both presidential frontrunners have locked in their delegate count and there are few contested primary races down ballot.
Those few contested primaries are predictably nasty, with state political powers taking their shots where they can. State party organizations aren't supposed to endorse one candidate over another, but you can always tell who the state establishment is backing.
Sometimes it's the incumbent. But not always. And woe betide any organization or lawmaker who supports anyone but the establishment favorite. So, for a few more days, it will be Democrats bashing Democrats and Republicans bashing Republicans. And there will be some likely post-primary payback for those individuals or groups who bucked the party establishment and supported the candidates of their choice.
It's indeed a sausage factory, dear readers.
But not a lot will change after the primary. I am looking at November and I haven't even cast my primary ballot as of this writing. I am struck by a very well-organized report from the Cook Political Report's Swing State Project that summarized voter trends for May 2024. The project is a collaboration among Cook, a Republican polling firm and a Democratic polling firm, and tracks voter trends in seven swing states that will likely decide the presidential election.
The biggest takeaway is that the successes of the Biden administration mean far less to this group of voters than the economy. And the majority of the voters polled feel that the cost of living is the strongest indicator of the health of the economy. And groceries cost significantly more than they did in 2020, along with housing and gas.
This perception tracks well with my email inbox. What I don't make a big deal of in my capsule bio or really even in regular conversation is that I am an economist by education. This is mostly because as soon as you say the word "economist," people's eyes glaze over with boredom.
So, I could explain that whoever sits in the White House has almost nothing to do with the state of the economy or that the post-Covid inflation was inevitable no matter who was in office, but it really doesn't matter even though true. No one cares. And the insidious thing about inflation is that even when the rate returns to "normal," say, 2%, it is never negative (believe me, we do not want negative inflation, either), so prices will never be what they were in 2020 again.
Prices went up under Biden. He can't change that. This is the top issue for swing state voters, and the rest of the poll goes on to show that voters are willing to make concessions on issues like abortion and even democracy rather than trust President Biden on the issues of the economy and immigration.
Just 41% of voters polled believe that "America would remain a democracy" if Trump won the election. Yet, that is an acceptable risk if the cost of living decreases. 73% of the same voters list the cost of living as their number one concern.
And voters lack confidence that prices will stabilize during a second Biden term. Only 40% of voters polled believe he will be able to bring down the cost of goods and 78% believe inflation will persist under his administration.
Voters are more concerned about Biden setting immigration policy than they are about Trump setting abortion policy, to the tune of 53% to 47%. Even among women, abortion ranks third among their concerns, after inflation and immigration (I sort of see the pragmatism here; how much worse can it get for women's reproductive health?).
I've written before that it is problematic to have two candidates who will be octogenarians. 66% of voters polled believe Biden won't finish a second term and 53% view Vice President Harris unfavorably.
Well, then. Trump should have the swing states locked up, then, right? Not so fast. Trump's overall unlikability actually makes the most important poll question – "who would you vote for?" incredibly close.
In a head-to-head match-up in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, there are three percentage points separating Trump and Biden: 47% for Trump compared to 44% for Biden.
In a five-way race including everyone, Trump's lead increases: 43% to 38% with 8% going to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. RFK Jr. may not have a chance at winning the White House, but he does have the power to win it for Trump.
Like the 1980 election, it looks like the 2024 election will be driven by the economy. Unlike the 1980 election, the 2024 election will feature two incumbents with nearly identical unfavorability ratings. The winner will not be decided in a landslide like Ronald Reagan but by narrow margins in a handful of states. The 47th President will not have a mandate but rather half the nation in opposition.
And he still won't be able to do much about the price of a gallon of milk.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican, she lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at
