We're off and running in a new year and a new presidency is just around the corner. Given the vigor of the as yet completely private transition of President-elect Trump and the minimal effort from the outgoing Biden administration one might be mistaken that the 47th presidency of the United States has already started.
I take off my hat to the transition effort for moving out expeditiously. In many cases it can take up to two years for certain appointees to be named. It appears this transition team is taking the imperative of just four years seriously. I appreciate this. Future transition teams should look to this particular aspect of the Trump 47 transition as one to emulate.
Given all the early information provided by the transition to date and other key indicators, my column this week will offer my best estimates of what Americans should expect in 2025.
The Economy
The narrow majority of Americans who elected Trump (I know some will want to call this a mandate, but a 1.5% margin just doesn't justify the term) generally cited the economy as a primary reason. The economy was pretty good in 2024. It will continue to be pretty good in 2025.
Notably, after Trump's victory, the stock market endured its longest losing streak in 50 years. This was largely attributed to fears of inflation spikes to come, fueled by the Fed signaling that interest rate cuts would be slower in 2025, slight increases to inflation in real time, and Trump's promises at the time to implement tariffs which would raise consumer prices on imported goods. The markets, of course, ended the year with significant gains regardless of the post-election slump. Interest rates will decline, but more slowly.
Tariffs remain a moving target, based on early market reactions, as well as impacted nations showing some tooth, and voters rumbling about prices. It's unclear whether they will be on an entire nation's goods or entire sectors across many nations; whether consumer goods will be spared; if individual firms can donate their way out of them (the previous Trump administration demonstrated this was indeed possible).
What the previous round of Trump tariffs did not do, nor the Biden tariffs, was increase American manufacturing. Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP is still declining. So why are we doing this?
Two significant myths worth debunking are that the president controls the economy in a free-market democracy and that Biden's policies are solely to blame for post-pandemic inflation. First, the president doesn't control the American economy. You don't WANT the president to control the economy. That's communism.
Second, inflation was coming after the pandemic no matter who was president; the stimulus packages passed by Trump and Biden provided more spending power while consumer goods were in short supply and fewer people were in the workforce. When you have more money than goods or people to make or ship them, the price goes up.
Congress
The typical post-election model is the winning party wins the White House and both chambers of Congress, allowing that party's agenda to be easily passed until the mid-term elections, when one or sometimes both chambers of Congress are lost to the opposition. The challenge right now is that the majority is razor-thin, and held by post-2012 Republicans, which mildly put, is an unruly caucus. Electing a Speaker of the House in two rounds of voting was a major success for House Republicans last week, highlighted by Congresswoman Nancy Mace passing her phone to two naysayers and letting them be won over by the President-Elect, ensuring a one-vote path to victory for Speaker Mike Johnson.
Americans should expect to see the majority of House Republicans easily managed by the White House, and senior Senators digging in on some of the more unfit Cabinet nominations. Former Congressman Matt Gaetz, who has spent roughly eight more hours as a litigator than I have, got no love from the Senate in his bid to be Attorney General.
But one should not underestimate the lengths the new White House will be willing to go for some of the nitwits who have been nominated. Trump is unafraid to unleash his henchmen, particularly DOGE-in-Chief Elon Musk, who tweet-bombed Senator Joni Ernst, who was a holdout on the wildly unfit Defense Secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, until she agreed that she would "support Pete through this process…" looking forward to "…a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources." Well. Even an alcohol-abusing baby daddy with a sexual assault rap can look good to a military veteran and sexual assault survivor when she's threatened with a primary opponent.
The ever-popular budget cliff is going to be a sore spot, though and the Freedom Caucus will continue to hold the budget and the government hostage as debt ceiling limits approach (one is expected within weeks). Trump has requested the elimination of the debt ceiling. Which brings us to….
Immigration
Just after Christmas, "border czar"/"REAL Homeland Security Secretary" Tom Homan said on every possible news outlet that the bill to achieve mass deportations would run some $85 billion "just to get started." This is a clear appeal to the Freedom Caucus: Eliminate the budget ceiling or get blamed for slowing down the deportations.
Then there is the logistics and establishing priority for deportations. First is the category already ordered to be deported: those convicted of crimes and with final removal orders for deportation. As of 2022, this category numbered some 1.9 million. Unsurprisingly, these people do not want to be found. They must be located, apprehended, detained and removed. No one is necessarily fighting for these people to stay here. But this group alone could take years to remove.
Next are the individuals granted visa-free parole status. This status has been given to refugees from Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba. Trump wants this parole to end immediately and those granted this parole deported – nearly 530,000 people. Trump attempted to revoke this parole in his first administration and a lawsuit filed by immigrants citing racial amicus successfully garnered a nationwide injunction that lasted throughout Trump's first term.
These are the two most significant actions planned by the Trump immigration team. Elimination of more minor regulations, as well as an app that allows migrants to schedule appointments to seek asylum are also planned. It is also likely that the Trump 47 administration will use the withholding of visas as leverage to try and force countries to accept their criminal deportees.
Government
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed co-leaders of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is the most ambitious and Sisyphean promise of the Trump 47 administration. When referring to the effort to cut wasteful government, most people refer to Musk's purchase of Twitter.
It's not a great metaphor. The gist of the story is that Musk cut a bunch of unnecessary jobs (80%) and Twitter/X still "works." Okay. X is far, far, far from profitable. Projections have X generating around $600 million in revenue for fiscal year 2024. In 2022, before Musk bought it, it was bringing in $4.4 billion. Industry experts project revenues will continue to decline on the current path. As a personal communication tool, X is a tremendous platform for Musk, perhaps worth the $44 billion he paid for it (not to mention the debt burden that came with that price tag that he passed on to the company).
If you cut 80% of the jobs in government, the most will be in the Department of Defense. Show me the members of Congress – especially the Republicans – that will let that happen. If you cut costs 80% it will have to come from defense, Medicare, or Social Security. Again, I think there are 535 people on Capitol Hill who will have a problem with that.
This is before we even get to the 3 million federal workers themselves. This is a tough crowd. I don't see them being unraveled easily. Oh, and they have a union.
Will a lot happen in the first 100 days? Yes. Primarily on social media. And there will some juicy confirmation hearings, a debt ceiling debate and yet another budget showdown. But I wouldn't count on seeing immigrant families torn apart, the federal civil service being dismantled, or a major economic swing in either direction. It will be a lot of what we have been seeing since 2016, like it or not.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican for 36 years, she became an independent upon reading the 2024 Republican platform. She lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and one of cat. She can be reached at
