The targeted assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' political leader, and his bodyguard in Tehran on July 31 has set Southwest Asia on edge again.
According to The New York Times, the assassination was accomplished with a bomb smuggled into a guesthouse run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and remotely detonated once it was confirmed that Haniyeh was inside. Iranian officials and Hamas said Israel was responsible for the assassination, and U.S. officials have concurred with that assessment.
There has been much speculation in the subsequent two weeks that a larger conflict between the "Axis of Resistance," the loose coalition of state and non-state actors who carry out Iran's regional agenda, and Israel is imminent, possibly even dragging in the United States. The United States has accelerated the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Fifth Fleet area of operation, including the ballistic missile submarine USS Georgia.
The U.S. and Israel, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), have both predicted a "large scale, coordinated attack" on Israel by Iran imminently. According to ISW, it will likely target military targets near civilian areas. If the previous large-scale coordinated attack was any indicator, it will be expensive for Iran with minimal impact.
When Iran launched its April 14 attack, nearly every drone and missile was deflected or destroyed through a multinational cooperative effort. France, Britain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all cooperated under American command to track and intercept the drones and rockets. The U.S. reported destroying more than 80 Iranian weapons, Israel reported intercepting 25 Iranian cruise missiles, and Jordan reported destroying 20% of the Iranian drones.
ISW reports that Iran is preparing to ship hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine. Iran is burning through its missile inventory.
Iran is not interested nor equipped to mount a sustained combat offensive in the region. Tarik Solmaz writes in The Defence Horizon Journal that "For its part, Tehran is aware that it lacks the military capabilities and financial resources to endure a direct military confrontation with the U.S."
Solmaz continues, "Tehran has a lengthy history of employing hybrid warfare tactics against the United States, dating back to the establishment of the Islamic Republic during the 1979 revolution. These tactics, including proxy warfare, covert paramilitary operations, propaganda, and cyber-attacks, have been utilised as part of Iran's strategic efforts to consolidate its regime, assert influence within areas it considers belonging to an Iranian/Shia sphere of influence, and counter perceived American interests."
My opinion is Iran launched an attack even before the assassination attempt.
On July 22, the newsmagazine POLITICO was sent an email containing information apparently hacked from the Trump campaign. It was sent a dossier on vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance's potential weaknesses as a running mate a few days later. The Washington Post was sent the Vance dossier on August 8.
According to The Washington Post, the FBI is now investigating the hacking efforts, which are also targeting the Harris-Walz campaign, and are alleged by Microsoft and the Trump campaign to be coming from Iran.
None of the news organizations sent the hacked information are publishing it. I am appreciative of their commitment to not elevate the hackers' attack for headlines. It shows that hard lessons have been learned in the digital age and from the 2016 Russian hacks into Hillary Clinton's campaign emails.
The Trump campaign hack does point to the need for cybersecurity legislation at a national level and increased vigilance from Americans. This is a war we can all help fight.
Iran and Russian aren't the only cyber villains. China and North Korea are major contributors to not just your spam folder, but fake news on your social media feeds, and continuous attempts to undermine our key infrastructure like transportation and power distribution.
Trolling and hacking is far cheaper than trying to bomb Israel off the face of the earth. It just takes a little longer.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican for 36 years, she became an independent upon reading the 2024 Republican platform. She lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at
